Ray Dalio believes nations will outlaw Bitcoin if BTC worth retains rising

Ray Dalio, the billionaire hedge fund legend, doesn’t see digital currencies like Bitcoin (BTC) succeeding the way in which different folks do. He expects authorities to clamp down on cryptocurrencies once they see “materials” progress.

The every day chart of Bitcoin courting again to Jan. 1, 2020. Supply: TradingView

In the meantime, BTC has vastly outperformed Bridgewater year-to-date. Barry Silbert, CEO of Grayscale — a cryptocurrency funding agency with over $9 billion in property below administration — said:

“YTD returns: Bridgewater Pure Alpha II Fund: -18% Bitcoin: +115%.”

Bitcoin and Bridgewater can’t be straight in contrast, after all. The previous is a decentralized, digital forex with a market cap of $291 billion. The latter is a hedge fund that manages $148 billion in property below administration as of September 2020.

However, the distinction in efficiency reveals Bitcoin has much more risk-reward potential, significantly as its market capitalization right now is simply 2.36% of gold.

Different billionaire buyers present an urge for food for Bitcoin

Finally, Dalio’s skepticism towards cryptocurrencies comes all the way down to the regulatory menace in opposition to them.

If cryptocurrencies see materials progress, Dalio stated governments would doubtless ramp up their efforts to limit them, although he didn’t specify at which BTC worth threshold governments will begin taking direct motion. He additionally said:

“I don’t assume digital currencies will achieve the way in which folks hope they might.”

Dalio’s skepticism has additionally been shared by authorities officers. United States President Donald Trump launched an announcement relating to Bitcoin in July 2019. On the time, he wrote on Twitter:

“Not a fan of Bitcoin and different Cryptocurrencies, which aren’t cash, and whose worth is very unstable and based mostly on skinny air.”

Nonetheless, former U.S. President Barack Obama described Bitcoin as a “Swiss checking account,” alluding to the truth that nation-states received’t be capable to absolutely ban one thing that’s not solely international but additionally one thing that may be simply secured by people. 

Throughout a keynote on the South by Southwest pageant in 2016, former president Barak Obama said in relation to cryptocurrencies:

“Everyone is strolling round with a Swiss checking account of their pocket.”

At its core, Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer software program protocol. Governments might transfer towards proscribing the usage of cryptocurrencies by outlawing on and off-ramps into cryptocurrencies. However that may merely make Anti-Cash Laundering initiatives much less sensible, as customers will merely go underground or transfer to friendlier jurisdictions.

Moreover, when cryptocurrencies transfer to the gray market and other people begin trading crypto property in a peer-to-peer method, it will get harder to crack down on illicit exercise.

As such, a powerful argument could be made that it’s not in one of the best curiosity of governments to outright ban Bitcoin.